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NEWSLETTER
The Guardian Standard Newsletter - September 2020

September 2020

The November 2020 election is less than two months away. We thought some perspective on US Elections from one of our research partners, Ned Davis Research, seemed timely. In addition, we thought a quick review of our “True Financial Planning” topics seemed appropriate. In our This Is Life series, we discuss the importance of a clear and concise set of goals, and how clarity makes investment decisions easier for GFP as your financial advisor and personal fiduciary. Enjoy!

Ned Davis Research- Market Performance Around U.S. Elections

Key Takeaways

  • The stock market has tended to be stronger between September 15 and Election Day when the incumbent party has won, rather than when it has lost.
  • Year-end rallies have tended to be weaker when incumbent Republicans have lost.
  • However, post-election years have been strongest following incumbent Republican defeats.

Monday marked 50 days until the U.S. presidential election. With the possible exception of political pundits, the election cannot get here soon enough for most people. The pandemic pushed the election from the top of the news cycle, but with three presidential debates on the docket and early voting already underway in some states, the White House sweepstakes will be hard to knock off the top of the news feed.

You can add stock market bulls to the group that would prefer the election to be over. The market dislikes uncertainty, and political uncertainty is no exception. An upcoming presidential election has added to the uncertainty, especially in years when the outcome was in doubt.

On August 5, we highlighted that the market was weak approaching close elections. Joe Biden is leading in the polls, but after President Trump’s surprise victory four years ago, few are willing to confidently predict a winner this year.

The uncertainty has been even greater when the incumbent party has lost. There could be a chicken-versus-egg element to the analysis, with a weaker economy being negative for both the incumbent and the stock market. However, the uncertainty of a different administration likely plays a role as well. 

To read the remainder of this commentary, please click here. 

This Is Life- The Election and You

Other than COVID-19, the upcoming November election seems to be the proverbial “flavor of the day”! Does it matter who gets elected? What will happen after the election? What is the prudent approach to take presently? All legitimate questions and simple questions. BUT arriving at an answer is more difficult and requires explanation.

This election is not the first or the last this market and economy will experience. If we have clear established goals on how your assets relate to the present, the future, your working years, and finally your retirement years… we can assess what the most prudent course of action will be for the current November election.

Part of our commitment to you is developing a personal financial plan for you utilizing Moneyguide Pro software. This service is part of the fee GFP receives quarterly as your personal financial advisor and fiduciary. A clear set of goals helps to greatly clarify how we manage your assets and handle the current economic and investment environment on your behalf.  We have several tools we use to develop a clear and concise plan. We call our financial planning offering – True Financial Planning. Take a moment and review the topics we cover with True Financial Planning. Click here.  

If any of these topics are of importance to you, please email or schedule a time on our calendar here.  The more information we have about your goals, the easier it becomes to decide what asset management decisions are appropriate in this new world of COVID, Elections, and Self Distancing. After all, things change and good communication keeps us synced with your goals and your lifestyle. The best decisions are informed decisions.  Life happens.

Should You Have a Living Will?

Living wills and other advanced directives can play an important role in helping you plan ahead and get the medical care you want. These documents are written, legal instructions regarding your preferences for medical care if you are unable to make decisions for yourself. This topic is also an important one for families. You may have aging parents. Do you know if they have these documents in place?

Whether you are discussing these topics with your spouse, parents, or children, we realize this conversation may be uncomfortable. We want to help. You will likely create the documents with an attorney, however, we think a simple first step is starting the conversation with loved ones. A great framework for initiating the conversation is a tool we have used called Five Wishes. You can learn more about it here.  

As we have explained above, our True Financial Planning commitment incorporates topics like living wills. If you would like to discuss further, please contact us anytime. 

We are here to help and offer objective advice. If you would like to discuss any of these topics or any questions relating to financial planning and/or our view of the markets, please click here and pick a time on our calendar.